I have a theory...

Recessions are tough. They test every part of every system. In business, a recession exposes weaknesses and drives change. It is not only the limits of admin systems and processes that get exposed but also the limits of the people working in the organizations that are affected by the recession.

Good recruiters appoint people with the right skills to do a particular job. Obviously they also hope that new hire will also have potential to grow and develop over time. Once they are onboard a good company will get them up to speed and get them working to somewhere near their maximum potential. Over time, training courses and exposure to new ideas and processes will help the individual develop but in general, most people in good companies are working somewhere near the top of their ability at any given point in time (otherwise, they are bored and the company is overpaying for talent it is not using).

When a recession comes along, it forces change at a rapidly increased rate, maybe more rapidly than new skills can be learned. Overnight, the trading environment can change in many ways (not always for the worse) and organizations need to change to keep up or maintain and grow their lead. This requires the individuals inside those organizations to drive that change and that is where the people who were already working at their limit can find themselves outside their comfort zone. People that have been with an organization for a long time and who are working hard every day to get their job done will find it hard to suddenly start innovating and coming up with new ways to approach their job.

When a recession bites, many organizations will trim any perceived excess and if there are people who are clearly not going to raise their game to cope with the new, more demanding environment, they will be let go. That doesn’t necessarily mean their role is redundant (although their job loss may be communicated like that) and new blood may well be brought in to drive the required change.

In additional to some potential legal traps, the challenge this gives to organizations is how do they bring on new, more highly skilled talent which probably costs more, at a time when they are likely to be reducing costs? It is a brave company that increases its wage bill during a recession, but sometimes that may be just what is needed to make the most of the opportunity.

The other side of this theory works for those people that find themselves out of a job in the middle of a recession. Although many firms are letting staff go, there will still be job opportunities out there with companies that are not just downsizing but who are also changing team members. Keep looking, they are out there, and they are probably with the most forward thinking and ambitious company you could hope to work for.